WxSim & NWS Forecast Temperature Comparisons
National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)
Early Morning Forecasts
| Updated: 09-08-10 at 5:30 am |
| Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
| ± 2.0° F |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
| Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
| 09-08-10 |
76 |
|
77 |
49 |
|
51 |
77 |
|
81 |
56 |
|
58 |
75 |
|
70 |
63 |
|
58 |
83 |
|
75 |
58 |
|
59 |
| 09-07-10 |
81 |
79.8 |
82 |
51 |
66.3 |
52 |
78 |
|
81 |
52 |
|
52 |
77 |
|
83 |
59 |
|
57 |
78 |
|
69 |
64 |
|
56 |
| 09-06-10 |
86 |
86.3 |
77 |
61 |
60.5 |
61 |
81 |
79.8 |
84 |
53 |
66.3 |
53 |
78 |
|
82 |
56 |
|
51 |
79 |
|
85 |
61 |
|
58 |
| 09-05-10 |
76 |
78.1 |
78 |
55 |
44.8 |
59 |
85 |
86.3 |
87 |
62 |
60.5 |
62 |
84 |
79.8 |
86 |
59 |
66.3 |
53 |
81 |
|
85 |
58 |
|
54 |
| 09-04-10 |
70 |
70.6 |
71 |
45 |
51.4 |
45 |
77 |
78.1 |
80 |
55 |
44.8 |
55 |
85 |
86.3 |
86 |
62 |
60.5 |
62 |
86 |
79.8 |
91 |
63 |
66.3 |
59 |
| 09-03-10 |
74 |
73.5 |
76 |
49 |
58.7 |
54 |
71 |
70.6 |
73 |
48 |
51.4 |
48 |
80 |
78.1 |
82 |
56 |
44.8 |
54 |
86 |
86.3 |
91 |
63 |
60.5 |
58 |
| 09-02-10 |
84 |
84.3 |
70 |
60 |
69.8 |
80 |
73 |
73.5 |
64 |
51 |
58.7 |
77 |
71 |
70.6 |
55 |
50 |
51.4 |
82 |
79 |
78.1 |
53 |
58 |
44.8 |
89 |
| 09-01-10 |
85 |
81.2 |
73 |
70 |
68.1 |
69 |
84 |
84.3 |
78 |
62 |
69.8 |
67 |
74 |
73.5 |
76 |
52 |
58.7 |
57 |
73 |
70.6 |
74 |
51 |
51.4 |
52 |
| 08-31-10 |
90 |
90.7 |
93 |
70 |
68.9 |
71 |
86 |
81.2 |
81 |
69 |
68.1 |
69 |
84 |
84.3 |
88 |
63 |
69.8 |
70 |
79 |
73.5 |
76 |
54 |
58.7 |
57 |
| 08-29-10 |
91 |
87.2 |
95 |
67 |
63.4 |
71 |
85 |
90.7 |
90 |
68 |
68.9 |
65 |
90 |
81.2 |
92 |
68 |
68.1 |
65 |
86 |
84.3 |
88 |
66 |
69.8 |
67 |
| 08-28-10 |
86 |
90.3 |
90 |
64 |
52.0 |
63 |
91 |
87.2 |
96 |
67 |
63.4 |
63 |
88 |
90.7 |
87 |
66 |
68.9 |
60 |
89 |
81.2 |
90 |
67 |
68.1 |
65 |
| 08-27-10 |
82 |
85.9 |
85 |
56 |
49.8 |
55 |
86 |
90.3 |
90 |
65 |
52.0 |
62 |
90 |
87.2 |
93 |
65 |
63.4 |
67 |
90 |
90.7 |
94 |
64 |
68.9 |
66 |
| 08-26-10 |
78 |
81.1 |
81 |
53 |
52.3 |
51 |
82 |
85.9 |
86 |
55 |
49.8 |
56 |
87 |
90.3 |
89 |
62 |
52.0 |
62 |
87 |
87.2 |
93 |
65 |
63.4 |
65 |
| 08-25-10 |
79 |
81.8 |
83 |
52 |
60.4 |
56 |
78 |
81.1 |
83 |
53 |
52.3 |
53 |
82 |
85.9 |
88 |
58 |
49.8 |
55 |
87 |
90.3 |
92 |
64 |
52.0 |
59 |
| Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
| # Succ |
6 |
|
6 |
4 |
|
3 |
6 |
|
7 |
4 |
|
4 |
5 |
|
2 |
4 |
|
3 |
5 |
|
1 |
3 |
|
3 |
| % Succ |
46.2 |
|
46.2 |
30.8 |
|
23.1 |
50.0 |
|
58.3 |
33.3 |
|
33.3 |
45.5 |
|
18.2 |
36.4 |
|
27.3 |
50.0 |
|
10.0 |
30.0 |
|
30.0 |
| Ave Error |
2.1 |
|
3.8 |
6.6 |
|
6.4 |
2.5 |
|
3.1 |
5.7 |
|
6.0 |
2.7 |
|
5.1 |
5.2 |
|
7.9 |
2.9 |
|
7.0 |
4.8 |
|
7.4 |
| Net Error |
-0.7 |
|
-1.3 |
-1.0 |
|
1.6 |
-0.8 |
|
0.3 |
0.2 |
|
2.0 |
0.6 |
|
1.3 |
0.7 |
|
3.0 |
2.0 |
|
2.0 |
1.1 |
|
3.3 |
| Std Dev |
1.6 |
|
4.4 |
4.9 |
|
4.9 |
2.1 |
|
3.3 |
4.8 |
|
5.8 |
2.7 |
|
4.8 |
4.1 |
|
9.0 |
2.5 |
|
7.7 |
4.3 |
|
13.0 |
|
|
|
Morning Forecasts
| Updated: 09-08-10 at 10:29 am |
| Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
| ± 2.0° F |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
| Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
| 09-08-10 |
76 |
|
79 |
49 |
|
52 |
77 |
|
79 |
56 |
|
59 |
75 |
|
75 |
63 |
|
60 |
83 |
|
73 |
58 |
|
60 |
| 09-07-10 |
81 |
79.8 |
81 |
51 |
46.5 |
52 |
78 |
|
81 |
52 |
|
56 |
77 |
|
82 |
59 |
|
54 |
78 |
|
83 |
64 |
|
55 |
| 09-06-10 |
86 |
86.3 |
89 |
61 |
66.3 |
63 |
81 |
79.8 |
83 |
53 |
46.5 |
52 |
78 |
|
82 |
56 |
|
53 |
79 |
|
84 |
61 |
|
59 |
| 09-05-10 |
77 |
78.1 |
80 |
55 |
60.5 |
58 |
85 |
86.3 |
88 |
62 |
66.3 |
61 |
84 |
79.8 |
85 |
59 |
46.5 |
52 |
81 |
|
86 |
58 |
|
55 |
| 09-04-10 |
70 |
70.6 |
72 |
45 |
44.8 |
47 |
77 |
78.1 |
80 |
55 |
60.5 |
63 |
85 |
86.3 |
90 |
62 |
66.3 |
59 |
86 |
79.8 |
87 |
63 |
46.5 |
53 |
| 09-03-10 |
74 |
73.5 |
72 |
49 |
51.4 |
54 |
71 |
70.6 |
73 |
48 |
44.8 |
50 |
80 |
78.1 |
81 |
56 |
60.5 |
53 |
86 |
86.3 |
91 |
63 |
66.3 |
58 |
| 09-02-10 |
84 |
84.3 |
70 |
60 |
58.7 |
80 |
73 |
73.5 |
64 |
51 |
51.4 |
77 |
71 |
70.6 |
55 |
50 |
44.8 |
82 |
79 |
78.1 |
53 |
58 |
60.5 |
89 |
| 09-01-10 |
85 |
81.2 |
74 |
70 |
69.8 |
68 |
84 |
84.3 |
77 |
62 |
58.7 |
67 |
74 |
73.5 |
76 |
52 |
51.4 |
56 |
73 |
70.6 |
75 |
51 |
44.8 |
54 |
| 08-31-10 |
90 |
90.7 |
92 |
70 |
68.1 |
70 |
86 |
81.2 |
77 |
69 |
69.8 |
70 |
84 |
84.3 |
88 |
63 |
58.7 |
66 |
79 |
73.5 |
76 |
54 |
51.4 |
57 |
| 08-30-10 |
84 |
87.2 |
81 |
67 |
68.9 |
66 |
90 |
90.7 |
92 |
68 |
68.1 |
69 |
88 |
81.2 |
92 |
67 |
69.8 |
68 |
87 |
84.3 |
85 |
63 |
58.7 |
66 |
| 08-29-10 |
92 |
93.2 |
95 |
67 |
63.4 |
68 |
85 |
87.2 |
83 |
68 |
68.9 |
67 |
90 |
90.7 |
90 |
68 |
68.1 |
66 |
86 |
81.2 |
93 |
66 |
69.8 |
67 |
| 08-28-10 |
86 |
90.3 |
93 |
64 |
71.3 |
67 |
91 |
93.2 |
95 |
67 |
63.4 |
67 |
88 |
87.2 |
89 |
66 |
68.9 |
64 |
89 |
90.7 |
92 |
67 |
68.1 |
67 |
| 08-27-10 |
82 |
85.9 |
87 |
56 |
52.0 |
56 |
86 |
90.3 |
89 |
65 |
71.3 |
63 |
90 |
93.2 |
95 |
65 |
63.4 |
64 |
90 |
87.2 |
93 |
64 |
68.9 |
62 |
| 08-26-10 |
78 |
81.1 |
80 |
53 |
49.8 |
53 |
82 |
85.9 |
86 |
55 |
52.0 |
55 |
87 |
90.3 |
90 |
62 |
71.3 |
57 |
87 |
93.2 |
94 |
65 |
63.4 |
61 |
| Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
| # Succ |
8 |
|
8 |
5 |
|
2 |
7 |
|
6 |
4 |
|
3 |
7 |
|
4 |
3 |
|
2 |
3 |
|
3 |
2 |
|
1 |
| % Succ |
61.5 |
|
61.5 |
38.5 |
|
15.4 |
58.3 |
|
50.0 |
33.3 |
|
25.0 |
63.6 |
|
36.4 |
27.3 |
|
18.2 |
30.0 |
|
30.0 |
20.0 |
|
10.0 |
| Ave Error |
1.9 |
|
3.4 |
3.2 |
|
4.6 |
1.9 |
|
3.2 |
3.2 |
|
5.9 |
2.1 |
|
4.5 |
4.4 |
|
8.5 |
3.4 |
|
6.4 |
4.7 |
|
7.9 |
| Net Error |
-1.0 |
|
-1.2 |
-0.3 |
|
2.3 |
-0.8 |
|
-1.2 |
0.1 |
|
3.3 |
0.5 |
|
1.4 |
0.0 |
|
1.6 |
1.7 |
|
1.4 |
1.6 |
|
3.6 |
| Std Dev |
1.5 |
|
3.7 |
2.2 |
|
5.1 |
1.5 |
|
2.7 |
2.3 |
|
6.8 |
2.2 |
|
4.7 |
3.8 |
|
10.2 |
2.7 |
|
7.5 |
4.9 |
|
8.3 |
|
|
|
Afternoon Forecasts
| Updated: 09-08-10 at 2:29 pm |
| Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
| ± 2.0° F |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
| Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
| 09-08-10 |
76 |
|
77 |
49 |
|
50 |
77 |
|
80 |
56 |
|
58 |
75 |
|
81 |
63 |
|
57 |
83 |
|
72 |
58 |
|
57 |
| 09-07-10 |
74 |
79.8 |
79 |
51 |
46.5 |
51 |
78 |
|
81 |
52 |
|
57 |
77 |
|
83 |
59 |
|
58 |
78 |
|
84 |
63 |
|
56 |
| 09-06-10 |
86 |
86.3 |
87 |
61 |
66.3 |
61 |
81 |
79.8 |
82 |
53 |
46.5 |
53 |
78 |
|
82 |
56 |
|
54 |
78 |
|
84 |
61 |
|
58 |
| 09-05-10 |
77 |
78.1 |
79 |
55 |
60.5 |
58 |
86 |
86.3 |
86 |
62 |
66.3 |
61 |
82 |
79.8 |
90 |
56 |
46.5 |
54 |
79 |
|
86 |
57 |
|
55 |
| 09-04-10 |
70 |
70.6 |
70 |
45 |
44.8 |
46 |
77 |
78.1 |
80 |
55 |
60.5 |
62 |
84 |
86.3 |
88 |
63 |
66.3 |
60 |
86 |
79.8 |
89 |
62 |
46.5 |
56 |
| 09-03-10 |
74 |
73.5 |
72 |
49 |
51.4 |
52 |
71 |
70.6 |
72 |
48 |
44.8 |
48 |
80 |
78.1 |
81 |
56 |
60.5 |
56 |
86 |
86.3 |
90 |
62 |
66.3 |
61 |
| 09-02-10 |
84 |
84.3 |
78 |
60 |
58.7 |
65 |
73 |
73.5 |
76 |
51 |
51.4 |
55 |
71 |
70.6 |
71 |
50 |
44.8 |
48 |
78 |
78.1 |
79 |
57 |
60.5 |
51 |
| 09-01-10 |
83 |
81.2 |
80 |
70 |
69.8 |
69 |
84 |
84.3 |
76 |
62 |
58.7 |
67 |
74 |
73.5 |
76 |
52 |
51.4 |
56 |
73 |
70.6 |
75 |
51 |
44.8 |
54 |
| 08-31-10 |
91 |
90.7 |
90 |
70 |
68.1 |
70 |
86 |
81.2 |
76 |
69 |
69.8 |
69 |
84 |
84.3 |
81 |
62 |
58.7 |
68 |
78 |
73.5 |
75 |
54 |
51.4 |
57 |
| 08-30-10 |
84 |
87.2 |
83 |
67 |
68.9 |
66 |
90 |
90.7 |
93 |
68 |
68.1 |
69 |
88 |
81.2 |
88 |
67 |
69.8 |
69 |
87 |
84.3 |
86 |
63 |
58.7 |
69 |
| 08-29-10 |
92 |
93.2 |
93 |
67 |
63.4 |
66 |
85 |
87.2 |
81 |
68 |
68.9 |
65 |
90 |
90.7 |
92 |
68 |
68.1 |
67 |
86 |
81.2 |
86 |
67 |
69.8 |
68 |
| 08-28-10 |
88 |
90.3 |
91 |
64 |
71.3 |
65 |
91 |
93.2 |
94 |
67 |
63.4 |
66 |
88 |
87.2 |
92 |
66 |
68.9 |
62 |
89 |
90.7 |
92 |
67 |
68.1 |
64 |
| 08-27-10 |
82 |
85.9 |
85 |
56 |
52.0 |
55 |
86 |
90.3 |
89 |
65 |
71.3 |
62 |
90 |
93.2 |
94 |
65 |
63.4 |
63 |
90 |
87.2 |
92 |
65 |
68.9 |
62 |
| 08-26-10 |
79 |
81.1 |
81 |
53 |
49.8 |
54 |
82 |
85.9 |
86 |
55 |
52.0 |
54 |
87 |
90.3 |
89 |
62 |
71.3 |
62 |
87 |
93.2 |
94 |
65 |
63.4 |
66 |
| Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
| # Succ |
8 |
|
11 |
5 |
|
4 |
7 |
|
6 |
4 |
|
4 |
6 |
|
5 |
3 |
|
3 |
3 |
|
5 |
2 |
|
1 |
| % Succ |
61.5 |
|
84.6 |
38.5 |
|
30.8 |
58.3 |
|
50.0 |
33.3 |
|
33.3 |
54.5 |
|
45.5 |
27.3 |
|
27.3 |
30.0 |
|
50.0 |
20.0 |
|
10.0 |
| Ave Error |
1.8 |
|
1.4 |
3.2 |
|
3.2 |
1.8 |
|
2.7 |
3.2 |
|
4.0 |
2.0 |
|
3.3 |
3.9 |
|
4.9 |
3.2 |
|
3.3 |
4.6 |
|
6.5 |
| Net Error |
-1.4 |
|
-1.1 |
-0.3 |
|
0.5 |
-0.8 |
|
-0.8 |
0.1 |
|
0.8 |
0.3 |
|
2.4 |
-0.2 |
|
-0.4 |
1.5 |
|
3.3 |
1.5 |
|
1.0 |
| Std Dev |
1.7 |
|
1.7 |
2.2 |
|
2.1 |
1.5 |
|
2.5 |
2.3 |
|
2.7 |
2.0 |
|
3.1 |
3.1 |
|
3.5 |
2.6 |
|
3.0 |
4.6 |
|
4.6 |
|
|
|
Evening Forecasts
| Updated: 09-08-10 at 8:29 pm |
| Goal |
Forecast Day |
Day +1 |
Day +2 |
Day +3 |
| ± 2.0° F |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
Low |
High |
| Date |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
| 09-08-10 |
49 |
|
50 |
77 |
|
80 |
56 |
|
59 |
75 |
|
77 |
63 |
|
59 |
83 |
|
76 |
58 |
|
58 |
81 |
|
79 |
| 09-07-10 |
49 |
46.5 |
50 |
77 |
77.2 |
80 |
52 |
|
53 |
76 |
|
82 |
57 |
|
60 |
77 |
|
65 |
63 |
|
59 |
83 |
|
79 |
| 09-06-10 |
61 |
66.3 |
61 |
81 |
79.8 |
84 |
52 |
46.5 |
53 |
78 |
77.2 |
81 |
55 |
|
53 |
78 |
|
83 |
61 |
|
57 |
82 |
|
69 |
| 09-05-10 |
55 |
60.5 |
58 |
86 |
86.3 |
87 |
62 |
66.3 |
64 |
82 |
79.8 |
84 |
56 |
46.5 |
53 |
79 |
77.2 |
82 |
57 |
|
51 |
78 |
|
86 |
| 09-04-10 |
45 |
44.8 |
45 |
76 |
78.1 |
80 |
55 |
60.5 |
57 |
84 |
86.3 |
87 |
62 |
66.3 |
60 |
86 |
79.8 |
88 |
62 |
46.5 |
55 |
82 |
77.2 |
84 |
| 09-03-10 |
49 |
51.4 |
51 |
71 |
70.6 |
72 |
45 |
44.8 |
47 |
79 |
78.1 |
80 |
56 |
60.5 |
57 |
85 |
86.3 |
89 |
62 |
66.3 |
62 |
86 |
79.8 |
86 |
| 09-02-10 |
60 |
58.7 |
78 |
74 |
73.5 |
65 |
50 |
51.4 |
76 |
72 |
70.6 |
55 |
50 |
44.8 |
71 |
78 |
78.1 |
48 |
57 |
60.5 |
79 |
85 |
86.3 |
51 |
| 09-01-10 |
70 |
69.8 |
67 |
85 |
84.3 |
75 |
61 |
58.7 |
67 |
74 |
73.5 |
75 |
52 |
51.4 |
56 |
73 |
70.6 |
70 |
51 |
44.8 |
51 |
78 |
78.1 |
77 |
| 08-31-10 |
71 |
68.1 |
68 |
86 |
81.2 |
76 |
71 |
69.8 |
68 |
84 |
84.3 |
81 |
60 |
58.7 |
68 |
74 |
73.5 |
75 |
54 |
51.4 |
57 |
73 |
70.6 |
71 |
| 08-30-10 |
69 |
68.9 |
67 |
92 |
90.7 |
91 |
69 |
68.1 |
66 |
89 |
81.2 |
84 |
69 |
69.8 |
68 |
88 |
84.3 |
82 |
62 |
58.7 |
68 |
82 |
73.5 |
78 |
| 08-29-10 |
68 |
63.4 |
65 |
84 |
87.2 |
81 |
68 |
68.9 |
64 |
91 |
90.7 |
92 |
67 |
68.1 |
64 |
90 |
81.2 |
92 |
67 |
69.8 |
67 |
85 |
84.3 |
88 |
| 08-28-10 |
65 |
71.3 |
65 |
92 |
93.2 |
93 |
67 |
63.4 |
66 |
86 |
87.2 |
86 |
67 |
68.9 |
63 |
90 |
90.7 |
90 |
67 |
68.1 |
66 |
86 |
81.2 |
88 |
| 08-27-10 |
54 |
52.0 |
55 |
87 |
90.3 |
88 |
64 |
71.3 |
61 |
91 |
93.2 |
93 |
66 |
63.4 |
65 |
90 |
87.2 |
87 |
65 |
68.9 |
62 |
89 |
90.7 |
92 |
| 08-26-10 |
51 |
49.8 |
53 |
82 |
85.9 |
85 |
55 |
52.0 |
55 |
87 |
90.3 |
89 |
62 |
71.3 |
62 |
91 |
93.2 |
92 |
65 |
63.4 |
65 |
89 |
87.2 |
94 |
| Results |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
NW |
Act |
WS |
| # Succ |
6 |
|
5 |
8 |
|
6 |
5 |
|
1 |
7 |
|
7 |
5 |
|
2 |
5 |
|
5 |
2 |
|
1 |
5 |
|
3 |
| % Succ |
46.2 |
|
38.5 |
61.5 |
|
46.2 |
41.7 |
|
8.3 |
58.3 |
|
58.3 |
45.5 |
|
18.2 |
45.5 |
|
45.5 |
20.0 |
|
10.0 |
50.0 |
|
30.0 |
| Ave Error |
2.7 |
|
3.9 |
1.8 |
|
3.4 |
3.0 |
|
6.0 |
1.9 |
|
3.2 |
3.7 |
|
7.2 |
2.8 |
|
5.7 |
4.5 |
|
6.6 |
3.2 |
|
7.3 |
| Net Error |
-0.3 |
|
0.9 |
-0.4 |
|
-1.6 |
-0.2 |
|
1.9 |
0.4 |
|
-0.5 |
-0.2 |
|
1.6 |
2.0 |
|
-0.6 |
1.4 |
|
3.4 |
2.6 |
|
0.0 |
| Std Dev |
2.2 |
|
4.9 |
1.4 |
|
3.0 |
2.2 |
|
6.5 |
2.1 |
|
4.0 |
3.2 |
|
7.3 |
2.8 |
|
8.5 |
4.6 |
|
5.8 |
3.1 |
|
10.5 |
|
|
|
Forecast comparison script provided by Jim McMurry at jcweather.us